地质科技情报2009，Vol.28Issue(4)：107-111,5.
基于非平稳时间序列分析的滑坡变形预测
Deformation Prediction of Landslide Based on theAnalysis of Non-stationary Time Series
摘要
Abstract
The displacement monitoring data is usually adopted as time series to predict the deformation of landslide, and displacement development can reflect the progress of lanslide process. The displacement monitoring data is considered as non-stationary time series, and so time series analysis is used to establish the model to predict the deformation trend of landslide. With Baishuihe landslide in Three Gorges Reservoir area as an example, the time series prediction model is established based on the analysis of practical displacement time series of each monitoring point in the early-warning region, taking monitoring points ZG93 and XD-04 as representation. Six steps of the displacement development are predicted from the 17th month, and the relationship between prediction curves and practical curves show that the curves anastomose well, with the prediction error in the range of ±9%. The result proves the effectiveness of the model, which provides reliable theoretical basis to judge the deformation development trend of Baishuihe landslide.关键词
滑坡/非平稳时间序列/监测数据/变形预测Key words
landslide/non-stationary time series/monitoring data/deformation prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
缪海波,殷坤龙,柴波,李德营..基于非平稳时间序列分析的滑坡变形预测[J].地质科技情报,2009,28(4):107-111,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"三峡库区库岸滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险预测研究"(40872176) （40872176）
国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目:"极端冰雪气候与地质灾害相关性研究"(2008BAC47B01) （2008BAC47B01）
