安徽农业大学学报2001，Vol.28Issue(2)：109-114,6.
安徽省四类稻谷比较优势及近期产量趋势分析
Analysis of Comparative Advantages and Near Future Yield Trend of Four Kinds of Paddy in Anhui Province in China
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyses the comparative advantages in 1997-1999 and predicts the near future production trend of 4 kinds of paddy in Anhui and other major producing provinces (including autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China. Among 5 factors the relative profit from growing rice X is significantly correlative to the ratios of gross paddy yield in 1999 to that in 1997 and in 1992, Y1 and Y2, respectively. However, none of the other 4 factors, i.e., unit yield, gross yield, net output per labour-day from rice-growing, and growers' annual income is significantly correlative to the ratios. The regression equations are calculated to be Y1=0.7800+0.1065X±0.2753 (r=0.4749,P＜0.05) and Y2=0.5124+0.3401X±1.9703 (r=0.5344,P＜0.02).These equations imply that an increase by 1 in the relative profit will probably result in a 10.65% and 34.01% of increase in the ratio of gross yield in 2 years and in 7 years, respectively. According to mean relative profit in 1998-1999,Hainan, Anhui and Hunan, among 9 major producing provinces in China, have the comparative advantage for production of early long-grained nonglutinous paddy. For semilate long-grained nonglutinous paddy, Yunnan, Guizhou, Henan, Shanxi, Anhui, Sichuan and Chongqing have the advantage among 10 major producing provinces. For late long-grained nonglutinous paddy, Hunan, Anhui, Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Guangxi have the advantage among 9 major producing provinces. For round-grained paddy, Ningxia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Anhui, Yunnan, Henan, Shanghai, Liaoning, Shanxi, Hebei, and Jiangsu have the advantage among 16 major producing provinces. For different types of rice, an order of the comparative advantage arranged from maximum to minimum is round-grained, semilate long-grained, late long-grained, and early long-grained nonglutinous paddy, which reflects that rice of high quality meets the need in market. In general, rice production in Anhui province has the advantage in China and rank the first in eastern region (5 provincial units in total) in the nation. Considering the recent widespread decrease in relative profits from rice-growing, it is predicted that the gross paddy yield in whole China will be reduced in the near future, but the yields especially those of round-grained paddy with high quality in northeastern and northwestern regions will increase, and the yields in southern regions will either increase or decrease depending on their comparative advantages in different provinces and different rice types.关键词
稻谷/比较优势/产量趋势/种植区划/安徽/中国分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
盛承发,岳永德..安徽省四类稻谷比较优势及近期产量趋势分析[J].安徽农业大学学报,2001,28(2):109-114,6.基金项目
中科院"九五”特别支持项目 （）
