上海农业学报2001，Vol.17Issue(2)：12-16,5.
中国粮食产量丰歉气象模型研究(Ⅰ)--粮食总量丰歉模型
STUDIES INTO METEOROLOGICAL GOOD/BAD GRAIN HARVEST MODELS IN CHINA（I）──TOTAL GOOD/BAD GRAIN HARVEST MODELS
摘要
Abstract
Based on grain yield data of 23 main grain-producing provinces or regions and weather data of 105 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 1995 , 23 meteorological good/bad grain harvest models have been set up .The accuracy of good grain harvest models is 89%(388/436 year-times),that of bad grain harvest models is 84.7%(111/131 year-times), and the total accuracy is 88%(499/567 year-times). Compared with actual total grain yields of 23 provinces/regions， the average accuracy of simulated total grain yields derived from the models is 97.63%, the minimal and maximal relative errors are 0.23% and 6.4%， respectively.关键词
粮食产量/丰歉/气象模型分类
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薛正平,杨星卫,陆贤,李军..中国粮食产量丰歉气象模型研究(Ⅰ)--粮食总量丰歉模型[J].上海农业学报,2001,17(2):12-16,5.
