热带地理2001，Vol.21Issue(2)：125-130,6.
香港降水的短期气候预测
SHORT-RANGE CLIMATE PREDICTION OF THE PRECIPITATION IN HONGKONG
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly precipitation data of Hong Kong for 1853-1995, statistical models are developed by using the normalized periodic regression and threshold auto-regression analyses. The normalized periodic regression model can reproduce the precipitation with a variance which makes up above 80 percent of the total variance except in former rainy season, while the periodic complex correlation coefficients reach up to 0.9. The accuracy of the prediction tests for seven seasons in 1996 is 71 percent with errors less than one and half times of the residual standard deviation. The threshold auto-regression models for predicting 10-year moving average precipitation of the seven seasons are developed. The predicting residuals of the models are small, and the accuracy of the prediction tests for seven seasons in 1996 is 100 percent with errors less than one and half times of the residual standard deviation.关键词
降水预测/正规化周期回归/门限自回归/香港分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
简裕庚,周文,陈创买,温之平..香港降水的短期气候预测[J].热带地理,2001,21(2):125-130,6.
