气候变化研究进展2009，Vol.5Issue(4)：209-214,6.
珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析
Observed (1961-2007) and Projected (2011-2060) Climate Change in the Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the temperature and precipitation observation data during 1961-2007 and projection during 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, changing tendencies of temperature and precipitation in the Pearl River basin were analyzed. The results show that the annual average air temperature increased by 1.8 ℃ during the past 47 years, with a maximum increase in winter and a minimum increase in summer. Annual temperature would rise by 1.9 ℃ under the SRES-A1B scenario in the next 50 years (2011-2060); at the same time, inter-annual variability would enhance. Seasonal temperature would rise most significantly in autumn and most weakly in winter under the SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 scenarios; however, under the SRES-AIB scenario, the opposite is true. In the past 47 years, except that autumn precipitation decreased, spring, summer, winter and annual precipitation increased. Precipitation would overally increase about 230 mm in 2011-2060 by the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under the SRES-AIB scenario. However, the seasonal percentages of annual rainfall would not change obviously. On the other hand, the inter-annual variability of annual and winter precipitation would enhance, but that of autumn precipitation would weaken.关键词
气温/降水/气候变化/气候预估/珠江流域Key words
temperature/precipitation/climate change/climate projection/Pearl River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘绿柳,姜彤,原峰..珠江流域1961-2007年气候变化及2011-2060年预估分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(4):209-214,6.基金项目
中国气象局2009年气候变化专项"中国主要流域气候变化对水资源影响评估及其适应方案选择"(CCSF-09-16)资助 （CCSF-09-16）
