电网技术2001，Vol.25Issue(1)：22-25,4.
空间负荷预测中不确定性因素的处理方法
PROCESSING OF UNCERTAINTY IN SPATIAL LOAD FORECASTING
FOR DISTRIBUTION PLANNING
摘要
Abstract
The city development usually falls into two
categories: smooth growth due to the continuous increase in economics, population and living standard, and abrupt change due to huge mount of outside investment or big project planned for the future, which once implemented the spatial load distribution may change significantly. This paper proposes a new SLF method to deal with the uncertainty in spatial load forecasting. Firstly, a new concept of Event Center is put forward to reflect the effect of big project on load distribution. The whole load distribution can be seen as an overlap of load distributions resulted from event centers and urban pole. In this paper, the forecasting procedure is divided into two steps: firstly, a land-use based SLF method is used to predict a basic distribution, which reflects the smooth trend in load growth. Then, an event distribution can be forecasted using the concept of event center, which includes uncertainties.关键词
空间负荷预测/不确定性处理/事件中心/城市改造/最优用地决策分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王天华,王平洋,袁钦成..空间负荷预测中不确定性因素的处理方法[J].电网技术,2001,25(1):22-25,4.
