干旱地区农业研究2009，Vol.27Issue(4)：225-229,5.
甘肃省粮食产量时空变化、驱动因子和趋势预测分析
Analysis of temporal and spatial variation, driving factors and trend prediction of grain yield in Gansu Province
摘要
Abstract
Based on temporal and spatial variation analysis of grain yield in Gan su Province in the past, the grey correlation analysis method was employed to ex plore the influential factors of grain yield and analyze quantitatively the degr ee of correlation between grain yield and its influential factors. The GM (1, 1) model was used to simulate and predict the variation trend of yield per unit ar ea, year-end population and total grain yield. The results showed: (1) The grai n yield of Gansu Province was increased in fluctuation, and the spatial distribut ion of annual average increase rate of grain yield had significant difference in each city and autonomous region. (2) The yield per unit area, year-end populat i on, effective irrigated area, disaster-stricken area, cultivated area and grain planting area were the main driving factors of grain production. (3) The increas ing degree of the total grain yield will not be apparent in the future, but the growth of population will get relatively faster. In order to promote sustainable development of grain production, the population should be controlled appropriat ely while grain production should be developed in a sustainable way.关键词
粮食生产/灰色关联分析/GM(1.1)模型/甘肃省Key words
grain production/grey correlation ana lysis/GM(1,1) model/Gansu Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
程英,刘普幸,白杨,马亚兰,潘竟源..甘肃省粮食产量时空变化、驱动因子和趋势预测分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2009,27(4):225-229,5.基金项目
甘肃省自然科学基金项目(0803RJZA094) （0803RJZA094）
甘肃省教育厅导师项目(0801-11) （0801-11）
甘肃省级重点学科自然地理学 （）
