高电压技术2008，Vol.34Issue(12)：2615-2620,6.
基于非线性时间序列分析的绝缘子污闪预测研究
Study of Polluted Insulator Flashover Forecasting Based on Nonlinear Time Series Analysis
摘要
Abstract
To solve the problem of the flashover forecasting of contaminated or polluted insulator, a flashover forecasting model of contaminated insulators based on nonlinear time series analysis is proposed in the paper. The ESDD is the key of flashover on polluted insulator. The ESDD value of insulator can be forecasted by the method of nonlinear time series analysis of the ESDD time series and a forecasting model of polluted insulator flashover is proposed in the paper. The forecasting model consists of two artificial neural networks that reflect relationship of environment, ESDD and flashover probability. The first is used to estimate the ESDD time series of insulator and the second is employed to calculate the probability of the flashover. A series of artificial pollution tests show that the results of the forecasting model is acceptable.关键词
insulator/flashover/forecasting/nonlinear/time series analysis/ANNsKey words
insulator/flashover/forecasting/nonlinear/time series analysis/ANNs分类
动力与电气工程引用本文复制引用
徐建源,滕云,林莘..基于非线性时间序列分析的绝缘子污闪预测研究[J].高电压技术,2008,34(12):2615-2620,6.基金项目
Cultiration Found of the Key Scientific and Technical Innovation Project, Ministry of Education of China(707018). （707018）
