中国地震研究(英文版)2003，Vol.17Issue(3)：286-296,11.
A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece
A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece
Theodoros M. Tsapanos 1Odysseus Ch. Galanis1
作者信息
- 1. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geophysical Laboratory, Thessaloniki 54124, Greece
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The probability of occurrence of strong ( Mw ≥ 6.0) earthquakes in the area of Aeghion(Central Greece) is determined by Bayes statistics. A catalogue of strong shocks around thecity of Aeghion since 1794 is used. For the purposes of our study two distributions ofearthquakes' occurrence are considered. In applying the Bayes approach, a Poissondistribution, which is a memoryless one, is assumed. In order to reinforce the result a time-dependent model (normal distribution) is also used. An effort is made to find the probabilitiesof earthquake occurrence for successive decades are determined by both distributions. Theestimated probability for a strong earthquake to occur during 1996 ～ 2005 in relation to theBayes approach shows that the year 2004 is the most likely for this future event. A pattern isalso revealed which suggests that the earthquakes in the examined area occurred in clusters (intime). The strong earthquakes in these clusters occurred in quadruplets.关键词
Bayes statistics/Poisson distribution/Time-dependent model/Cluster model/Quadruplets/Aeghion areaKey words
Bayes statistics/Poisson distribution/Time-dependent model/Cluster model/Quadruplets/Aeghion area引用本文复制引用
Theodoros M. Tsapanos,Odysseus Ch. Galanis..A Probabilistic Estimation of Strong Earthquakes' Occurrence in Aeghion Area, Central Greece[J].中国地震研究(英文版),2003,17(3):286-296,11.
