气象2000，Vol.26Issue(8)：35-38,4.
转移概率预报方法及其应用
An Application of the Predication Method of Conversion Probability
摘要
Abstract
Using the method of conversion probability and the prediction principle of maximum probability,the conversion principle of random time sequence state of early frost date,latest frost date and monthly precipitation at Akesu city in Xinjang during 1954-1995 was analysed.Combining the initial distribution of every sequence state,the prediction model was given.The forecast for every factor in 1996-1999 shows that the method′s prediction effect and applying effect are better.关键词
转移概率/随机时间序列/预报模型Key words
conversion probability random time sequence prediction model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张俊岚,王华..转移概率预报方法及其应用[J].气象,2000,26(8):35-38,4.
