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The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model

地震学报（英文版）2000，Vol.13Issue(1)：38-49,12.

The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model

作者信息

1. Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China;Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China;ISOR, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand;Graduate School, University of Science and Technology of China, Beijing 100039, China;Center for Analysis and Prediction, China Seismological Bureau, Beijing 100036, China
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摘要

Abstract

Based on the calculation method of information gain in the stochastic process presented by Vere-Jones, the relation between information gain and probability gain is studied, which is very common in earthquake prediction, and the yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model is proposed. The method is applied to the non-stationary Poisson model with whole-process exponential increase and stress release model. In addition, the prediction method of stress release model is obtained based on the inverse function simulation method of stochastic variable.

关键词

yearly probability gain non-stationary Poisson model stress release model stochastic variable simulation

Key words

yearly probability gain non-stationary Poisson model stress release model stochastic variable simulation

分类

天文与地球科学

引用本文复制引用

..The estimation of yearly probability gain for seismic statistical model[J].地震学报（英文版）,2000,13(1):38-49,12.

基金项目

This project is supported by the China Seismological Bureau under the contract number 95-04-03-03-03 and 95-04-07-02-03. （）

地震学报（英文版）

ISSN：1000-9116

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