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Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction

LIU Hong-gui WANG Pei-ling YANG Cai-xia XU Ge SUN Ye-jun CHEN Zhang-li ZHENG Si-hua

地震学报(英文版)2007,Vol.20Issue(4):467-476,10.
地震学报(英文版)2007,Vol.20Issue(4):467-476,10.

Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction

Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction

LIU Hong-gui 1WANG Pei-ling 2YANG Cai-xia 3XU Ge 4SUN Ye-jun 2CHEN Zhang-li 2ZHENG Si-hua2

作者信息

  • 1. Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • 2. Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing 210014, China
  • 3. Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100036, China
  • 4. Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province, Xining 810001, China
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

On the basis of the assumption that ω2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency flat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation (R value) has a high confidence level.

关键词

apparent stress/ predictability evaluation/ ω2 model/ confidence level

Key words

apparent stress/ predictability evaluation/ ω2 model/ confidence level

分类

天文与地球科学

引用本文复制引用

LIU Hong-gui,WANG Pei-ling,YANG Cai-xia,XU Ge,SUN Ye-jun,CHEN Zhang-li,ZHENG Si-hua..Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction[J].地震学报(英文版),2007,20(4):467-476,10.

基金项目

Project of National Natural Science Foundation (40574016), Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104047), and Science and Technological Planning Item of Social Development of Jiangsu Province (BS2005069).Contribution No.07FE3012, Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration. (40574016)

地震学报(英文版)

1000-9116

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