大地测量与地球动力学2003，Vol.23Issue(z1)：79-82,4.
A STUDY ON RELATION BETWEEN CONTINUOUS RAPID DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKES
A STUDY ON RELATION BETWEEN CONTINUOUS RAPID DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKES
摘要
Abstract
Continuous Rapid Deformation (CRD) may be an important precursor before some strong earthquakes with magnitude greater than MsS. 0. This paper shows some characteristics of CRD, and proposes a method for identifying precursory CRD that is closely related to the process of earthquake preparation. From the deformation data in Yunnan-Sichan provinces, we obtained the tilt and strain thresholds of 4.5ms/d and 5 × 10-7/d, respectively. Compared the tilt CRD in this region before 9 earthquakes (short-term fore-shocks and after-shocks not included) with magnitude greater than 5.8 in the period from January of 1990 to May of 2001, we found that 8 earthquakes occurred within 5 months after the CRD with a duration of more than 20 days and a tilt velocity of more than 4. 5ms/d without false prediction, but with one failure in earthquake prediction. For the strain CRD, 5 earthquakes occurred after the CRD; there was no false prediction, but 4 earthquakes unpredicted. We have tried to increase the thresholds, but found either the failure ratio or the rate of false prediction increased, while the success rate not obvious increased.关键词
Continuously Rapid Deformation (CRD)/K-slope/earthquake predictionKey words
Continuously Rapid Deformation (CRD)/K-slope/earthquake prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
Niu Anfu,Zhang Jing,Gao Fuwang,Ji Ping,Yah Xudong..A STUDY ON RELATION BETWEEN CONTINUOUS RAPID DEFORMATION AND EARTHQUAKES[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2003,23(z1):79-82,4.基金项目
Supported by the ‘ 10-th Five-year'national project of Science and Technology‘Research on the physical fundament for short-term prediction of strong earthquake'and the ‘Joint Earthquake Fund'. （）
