气候变化研究进展2007，Vol.3Issue(z1)：82-86,5.
20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析
Progress in the Attribution of Climate Warming in China for the 20th Century
摘要
Abstract
Progress in the attribution of climate warming in China for the 20th century is summarized. Three sets of climate model experiments including both coupled and uncoupled runs have been used in the attribution analyses. Comparison of climate model results with the observations proves that in the 20th century, especially in the recent half century, climate warming in China is closely related to the increasing of the anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, while sulfate aerosol should also have contributions. When both external forcing and natural forcing agents are prescribed, coupled climate models have better results in producing the observed variation of temperature in China. The role of oceanic forcing is also emphasized in the attribution analyses. The observed climate warming of China in the 1920s could not be reproduced in any set of climate model simulations.关键词
20th century/ surface air temperature/ China/ attribution analysis/ climate warmingKey words
20th century/ surface air temperature/ China/ attribution analysis/ climate warming分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周天军,赵宗慈..20世纪中国气候变暖的归因分析[J].气候变化研究进展,2007,3(z1):82-86,5.基金项目
This work was jointly supported by the International Partnership Creative Group entitled "The Climate System Model Development and Application Studies", and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40375029). （40375029）
