应用生态学报2011，Vol.22Issue(1)：268-272,5.
气象因素对陕西省苹果褐斑病流行的影响及预测模型
Effects of climate factors on the epidemic of apple Marssonina blotch in Shaanxi Province and related prediction models
摘要
Abstract
Based on the long term ( 1999-2008 ) monitoring of air temperature and relative humidity and of the occurrence and epidemiological trend of Marssonina blotch in the main apple-production area of Shaanxi Province, this paper analyzed the occurrence time, pathogenesis regularity,and epidemiological level of Marssonina blotch, with the 1- and 3-dimensional models for predicting Marssonina blotch under effects of ten-day mean air temperature (T) and relative humidity (Hm)constructed. In study area, the development of Marssonina blotch was mainly affected by environment factors. This disease spread rapidly in field in July and August, causing orchard defoliation,and the harm persisted until September. After the first frost, new disease spots no longer developed. The data of T and Hm in the models showed a good fitting with field condition. The 3-dimensional dynamic prediction model of Marssonina blotch was f( T, Hm ) = -0. 0172T3 +0. 9497T2 -16. 2209T+88. 9923-0. 00001Hm3 +0. 00354Hm2 -0. 15554Hm+2. 36578, where f( T, Hm ) was disease index. The modeling results showed that the T for the occurrence of Marssonina blotch in field was 15 ℃, and the disease would have an epidemic peak when the T and Hm in July and August reached 23 ℃ and ≥90％, respectively.关键词
苹果褐斑病/三维动态预测模型/环境因素分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李娟,苟丽霞,胡小敏,任福平,卫军峰,安德荣..气象因素对陕西省苹果褐斑病流行的影响及预测模型[J].应用生态学报,2011,22(1):268-272,5.基金项目
农业部公益性行业专项(nyhvzx07-051) ,高等学校学科创新引智计划项目(B07049)和陕西省财政厅项目(2008)资助. （nyhvzx07-051）
