交通信息与安全2011，Vol.29Issue(1)：8-11,4.DOI:10.3963/j.ISSN1674-4861.2011.01.003
基于Poisson过程的交通冲突预测模型研究
Stochastic Process-based Traffic Conflict Predicting Model
摘要
Abstract
Traffic conflict predicting is defined as predicting the times of the possible conflicts by means of analyzing the characteristic of traffic flow, and providing a dependable and feasible method for traffic safety evaluation of transport interchange, such as intersections. The factors which influence the conflicts of vehicles refer to the exposure time at the conflict point, the arriving characteristics during the exposure time, and the time headway among the vehicles, etc. By analyzing the conflict process of traffic conflict point, this paper presents a definition for the times of traffic conflicts. By applying the theory of Stochastic Process to it, the paper constructs a predicting model for the times of traffic conflicts among vehicles at conflict point. The comparative analysis of the results with the other predicting models shows that the predictive accuracy has been improved.关键词
随机过程/交通冲突点/交通冲突预测/交通安全评价分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
赵永红,白玉,杨晓光..基于Poisson过程的交通冲突预测模型研究[J].交通信息与安全,2011,29(1):8-11,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重点项目(批准号:60974093)、国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(批准号:50708080)资助 （批准号:60974093）
