西南交通大学学报2011，Vol.46Issue(1)：162-166,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2011.01.026
空域扇区流量与拥塞预测的概率方法
Probabilistic Methods for Airspace Sector Flow and Congestion Prediction
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the accuracy of sector flow forecasting and diminish false congestion alerts, probabilistic models for sector entry time, sector transit time and sector exit time were established through analysis of the uncertain factors influencing air traffic operations. Then, a probabilistic method for calculating the sector occupancy by an aircraft was built using the cumulative distribution functions of sector entry time and exit time. On this basis, a probabilistic method for sector congestion prediction based on Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. The simulation results show that, compared with the deterministic method, the proposed probabilistic method could decrease the ratio of congestion time intervals from 42％ to 33％.关键词
空中交通流量管理/扇区流量预测/概率/拥塞预测分类
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王超,杨乐..空域扇区流量与拥塞预测的概率方法[J].西南交通大学学报,2011,46(1):162-166,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(60972006) （60972006）
