湖泊科学2011，Vol.23Issue(2)：163-173,11.
长江输出溶解态无机磷的通量模型灵敏度分析及情景预测
Scenario prediction and sensitivity of modeling dissolved inorganic phosphorous export from the Yangtze River
摘要
Abstract
Riverine transport is the principal pathway of dissolved elements from land to the sea. Based on the quantitative analysis of human effects on the phosphorus cycling within the Yangtze River basin, we estimated the exports of dissolved inorganic phosphorous (DIP) from the Yangtze River to the estuary for the period 1970 -2003, by using the Global NEWS-DIP model. Modeled DIP export increased from 2.45kg/km2 in 1970 to 14.05kg/km2 in 2003 under the enhancing anthropogenic activities. No significant difference between the modeled and measured values at the level of P = 0.05 is observed, and the average model error is 12.29％. Diffuse sources (including chemical fertilizer application and animal manure P input) had contributed the most in DIP export since 1993. The contribution varied between 58.60％ and 75.48％. Sewage discharge was the major source of river DIP export before 1993, with the contribution varying between 99.98％ and 45.21％ , while the contribution decreased rapidly since then until to 24.81％ in 2003. We also discussed possible future trajectories of DIP export based on the MEA scenarios. How to control the diffuse nutrient inputs under enhancing human pressures will be a long-term and urgent task.关键词
溶解态无机磷/输出通量/模型/长江/人类活动/灵敏度分析Key words
DIP/ export/model/ Yangtze River/ human activities/ sensitivity analysis引用本文复制引用
李新艳,杨丽标,晏维金..长江输出溶解态无机磷的通量模型灵敏度分析及情景预测[J].湖泊科学,2011,23(2):163-173,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(20777073)和江苏省科技厅"太湖水污染治理专项"项目(BK2007747)联合资助. （20777073）
