电力系统自动化2011，Vol.35Issue(4)：6-11,6.
电网概率风险评估中元件可靠性参数的不确定性分析
Uncertainty of Reliability Parameters in Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Bulk Power Systems
摘要
Abstract
The parametric uncertainty is a basic type of epistemic uncertainty in probabilistic power system risk assessment (PRA). The second order Taylor expansion for PRA index at the mean values of component reliability parameter is derived, through which the expected risk indices can be analytically calculated after multicomponent reliability parameters have been changed. Furthermore, using the kernel density estimation theory and sampling technique, the probability density distributions of expected risk indices under the uncertainty of reliability parameters can be obtained. It provides visual specification of quantitative uncertainty analysis. Finally, the RBTS and IEEE-RTS 79 power systems are used to validate the proposed approach.关键词
元件可靠性/概率风险评估/不确定性分析Key words
component reliability/probabilistic risk assessment/uncertainty analysis引用本文复制引用
赵渊,谢开贵..电网概率风险评估中元件可靠性参数的不确定性分析[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(4):6-11,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50607021,50977094) （50607021,50977094）
输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007DA10512709103). （2007DA10512709103）
