水科学进展2011，Vol.22Issue(1)：44-50,7.DOI:CNKI:32-1309/P.20110115.2216.005
南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析
Risk analysis of synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water
摘要
Abstract
One of the major risk factors in managing water resources in the middle route project of South-to-North Water diversion will be due to spatial and temporal variations in precipitation. This is because the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation can be different at the source area of water and at the receiving area of water. In this study, a risk analysis model is developed using a combined approach based on the copula function and Bayesian networks. The copula function is used to establish the joint probability distribution and to calculate the conditional probability among the areas of source water and receiving water. The Bayesian network is applied to analyzing the synchronous-asynchronous encounter risk. Using the risk analysis model, a risk analysis is conducted to determine the lease favorable distribution of the synchronous-asynchronous encounter probability of rich-poor precipitation at different locations. The result shows that the risk probability is less than 25％ for water transfer to four receiving areas. Our risk analysis model is simple and practicable, and can provide a new tool for conducting the multivariate analysis of hydrological risks.关键词
copula函数/贝叶斯网络/南水北调/丰枯遭遇/风险分析分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
康玲,何小聪..南水北调中线降水丰枯遭遇风险分析[J].水科学进展,2011,22(1):44-50,7.基金项目
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2006BAB04A09 （）
2006BAB04A07) （）
