水科学与水工程2008，Vol.1Issue(2)：10-24,15.DOI:10.3882/j.issn.1674-2370.2008.02.002
Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas
Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas
摘要
Abstract
A combination of the rainfall-runoff module of the Xin'anjiang model, the Muskingum routing method, the water stage simulating hydrologic method, the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method, and the real-time error correction method is applied to the real-time flood forecasting and regulation of the Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas. The Xin'anjiang model is used to forecast the flood discharge hydrograph of the upstream and tributary. The flood routing of the main channel and flood diversion areas is based on the Muskingum method. The water stage of the downstream boundary condition is calculated with the water stage simulating hydrologic method and the water stages of each cross section are calculated from downstream to upstream with the diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The faded-memory forgetting factor least square of error series is used as the real-time error correction method for forecasting discharge and water stage. As an example, the combined models were applied to flood forecasting and regulation of the upper reaches of the Huai River above Lutaizi during the 2007 flood season. The forecast achieves a high accuracy and the results show that the combined models provide a scientific way of flood forecasting and regulation for a complex watershed with flood diversion and retarding areas.关键词
flood forecasting and regulation/Xin'anjiang model/Muskingum method/water stage simulating hydrologic method/diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method/flood diversion and retarding area/Huai RiverKey words
flood forecasting and regulation/Xin'anjiang model/Muskingum method/water stage simulating hydrologic method/diffusion wave nonlinear water stage method/flood diversion and retarding area/Huai River引用本文复制引用
Li Zhijia,Bao Hongjun,Xue Cangsheng,Hu Yuzhong,Fang Hong..Real-time flood forecasting of Huai River with flood diversion and retarding areas[J].水科学与水工程,2008,1(2):10-24,15.基金项目
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50479017) and the Program for Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Research Teams in Universities (Grant No. IRT071). （Grant No. 50479017）
