测绘科学技术学报2011，Vol.28Issue(1)：19-22,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-6338.2011.01.005
改进的修正预测法预报电离层
Predicting Ionospheric Using Improved Correcting Prediction Method
摘要
Abstract
Ionospheric can be predicted by using linearity least variance prediction method of ARMA model. However, it has a problem that large predicting error may exist at the extreme. Analysis of the choosen of upper limit order and order determining rule, appropriate order was confirmed and corresponding model was found. Corrccting prediction can modify the predicting result of linearity least variance prediction. But it is a short time predicting model, forecast one step about two hours each time, and the result is not ideality. Considered the periodicity of ionospheric changing, improved correcting prediction method was proposed which can reduce predicting error of the extreme. The experiment showed that result of improved correcting prediction was similar with original data.关键词
自回归移动平均/电离层/垂直总电子含量/线性最小方差预测/修正预测Key words
auto regression moving average(ARMA)/ ionospheric/ vertical total electron content(VTEC)/ linearity least variance prediction/ correcting prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘军,柴洪洲,常宜峰,唐江波..改进的修正预测法预报电离层[J].测绘科学技术学报,2011,28(1):19-22,4.基金项目
信息工程大学测绘学院硕士学位论文创新与创优基金资助项目(S2010-01). （S2010-01）
