气象学报2011，Vol.69Issue(2)：310-319,10.
中国天气发生器模拟非降水变量的效果评估
An evaluation of the BCC/RCG-WG's performance in simulating daily non-precipitation variables in China.
摘要
Abstract
The BCC/RCG-WG is a stochastic weather generator developed for simulating daily precipitations in China. In this study it is further developed by adopting a framework based on the Fourier series with multi-variables weak stationary process assumed for daily non-precipitation variables including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity and average wind speed. These non-precipitation variables are made dependent on the simulated precipitation by the previous version of the BCC/RCG-WG for daily precipitation. Using daily observations of the five non-precipitation variables from 1971 to 2000, the parameters for each non-precipitation variable of the further developed weather generator are determined for the 669 stations all over China. Based on the estimated parameters, daily non-precipitation variables at these stations for any period of time can be simulated. A 100 year simulation is made and compared with observations during 1971 - 2000 in terms of annual, monthly statistics and extreme climate events. The results of monthly and annual statistics are fairly satisfactory. Root mean square error (RMSE) of annual maximum temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity and average wind speed are 0.2℃, 0.2℃, 70.9 h, 0.6％ and 0. 2 m/s, respectively. The RMSEs of monthly maximum temperature,minimum temperature, sunshine hour, relative humidity and average wind speed are between 0.4 - 0.7℃, 0.4 - 0.7℃, 1020 h, 4％ - 14％ and 0. 6 - 0. 9 m/s, respectively. These demonstrate the usefulness of the weather generator BCC/RCG-WG for the five non-precipitation variables. However, simulations of extreme climate events are less satisfactory.关键词
天气发生器/最高气温/最低气温/日照时数/相对湿度/平均风速/中国Key words
Weather generator/ BCC/RCG-WG/ Maximum temperature/ Minimum temperature/ Sunshine hour/ Relative humidity/ Average wind speed/ China分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
廖要明,刘绿柳,陈德亮,谢云..中国天气发生器模拟非降水变量的效果评估[J].气象学报,2011,69(2):310-319,10.基金项目
瑞典STINT基金会资助项目、国家自然科学基金资助项目(40575057)、中国气象局2009气象新技术推广重点项目"月动力模式与统计降尺度结合预测极端温度日数". （40575057）
