水土保持研究2011，Vol.18Issue(3)：252-254,259,4.
GM(1,1)模型改进技术在咸阳市地下水动态预测中的应用
The Improved Technology of GM (1,1) Model in Predicting Groundwater of Xianyang City
摘要
Abstract
For the high degree of dispersion of groundwater level of Xianyang city, the improved GM(1,1)* model was used for predicting the groundwater.Based on grey theory GM(1, 1) model, it transforms the high degree of dispersion of the original sequence by moving average method, slows the growth of the original data, and uses the transformed sequence to establish the GM (1,1)* model.And using the data of groundwater level of Xianyang city, groundwater level is predicted, and the result is compared with the result of prediction of the unimproved GM(1, 1) model.From the prediction of groundwater of Xianyang city,we can see that, the groundwater resources has been effectively protected and used so that the groundwater level is decreasing year by year.It uses the data of groundwater level from 2001 to 2007 to build the GM (1,1) * model.Compared with the measured data, the result of the GM (1, 1 )* model is scientific and rational; and compared with the result of the unimproved GM (1,1) model prediction, it reflects higher prediction accuracy and strong practicality.The application of improved technology of GM (1,1) model, it decreases the degree of dispersion of the original data, improves the prediction accuracy and provides a new way for predicting the groundwater.关键词
地下水/GM(1,1)模型/滑动平均法/GM(1,1)*模型Key words
groundwater/ GM (1,1) model/ moving average method / GM (1,1) * model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郝健,刘俊民..GM(1,1)模型改进技术在咸阳市地下水动态预测中的应用[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(3):252-254,259,4.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD11805) （2006BAD11805）
