安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(15)：9055-9057,9071,4.
广州汛期暴雨频数和强度统计及周期分析
Frequency, Intensity Statistics and Cyclical Analysis of Rainstorm in the Flood Season in Guangzhou
周小云 1白玉洁 2李琼3
作者信息
- 1. 广东省气象科技服务中心,广东广州,510080
- 2. 广东省气象科技培训中心,广东广州,510080
- 3. 《热带气象学报》编辑部,广东广州,510080
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[ Objective ] The research aimed to analyze the variations of rainstorm frequency, intensity and period in the flood season in Guangzhou. [ Method ] Based on the daily precipitation data in Guangzhou City during 1951 -2010, the interannual and interdecadal variation characteristics of rainstorm in the flood season in Guangzhou City in recent 60 years were analyzed by using the linear regression analysis, correlation analysis, wavelet analysis and so on. Moreover, the relationship between the rainstorm in the flood season and annual average temperature was analyzed. [Result] In recent 60 years, the rainstorm amount (days) in the flood season in Guangzhou respectively increased with 6.23 mm/lOa and 0.27 d/10a linear trends. The most rainstorm days (rainfall) was in 2001 and was 15 d ( 1 085.7 mm). There was no rainstorm in the least year (1990). The interannual variations of rainstorm amount and days in the flood season in Guangzhou obviously increased in recent 20 years. The decadal and interannual variations of rainstorm in the prior and latter flood seasons had the difference. The trend in the prior flood season increased and in the latter flood season slightly decreased. The positive correlation between the rainstorm days and the annual average temperature in the flood season in Guangzhou was significant, and the relative coefficient was 0.22, which passed α = 0.02 significance level test. The total rainstorm days in the prior flood season in Guangzhou City mainly had 4.2 - year interannual and 52.9 - year interdecadal periodic variations. The total rainstorm days in the latter flood season mainly had 5.5 - year interannual and 18.4 - year interdecadal periodic variations. [ Conclusion] The research provided the scientific basis for the precipitation forecast in the flood season.关键词
汛期暴雨/频数/强度/周期分析/广州Key words
Rainstorm in the flood season/ Frequency/ Intensity/ Cyclical analysis/ Guangzhou分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周小云,白玉洁,李琼..广州汛期暴雨频数和强度统计及周期分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(15):9055-9057,9071,4.
