中国生态农业学报2011，Vol.19Issue(2)：415-420,6.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2011.00415
新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究
Spatio-temporal dynamics and optimal development scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang
摘要
Abstract
Using serial statistical data, this paper discussed the spatio-temporal dynamics of cotton plantation in Xinjiang for the period of 1949～2007. Also by using Fuzzy Theory and AHP method, an optimal interaction model between cotton plantation scale and the influencing factors in Xinjiang was constructed. Bused on the study, cotton acreage in Xinjiang had increased from 33.41× 103hm2 in 1949 to 1 782.60× 103 hm2 in 2007. The increase in cotton acreage was mainly characterized by staging and volatility. Temporal dynamics in cotton acreage were different for the main cotton-cultivating areas in South Xinjiang, North Xinjiang and East Xinjiang. South Xinjiang presented the most obvious dynamics with dominant effect on cotton plantation in Xinjiang. Cotton-cultivating area in Xinjiang was divided into four groups according to oasis location. With different temporal dynamics among groups in cotton acreage, obvious dynamics were observed in Tarim River Basin and Northwest Border Oases. Based on the Fuzzy Theory and AHP analyses, the optimal scale of cotton industry in Xinjiang was 800×103～1 000×l03 hm2 per year. Cultivation scales of 600× 103～800× 103 hm2 (second place), 400× 103～600× 103 hm2 (third place) and ＞1 000× 103 hm2 (last place) were less promising.This was sufficient evidence for choosing a rational scale for cotton production industry in Xinjiang.关键词
棉花产业/棉花种植面积/时空变化/适度规模/新疆Key words
Cotton industry/ Cotton acreage/ Spatio-temporal dynamics/ Optimal scale/ Xinjiang分类
地理科学引用本文复制引用
潘伟,杨德刚,杨莉,肖艳秋,王国刚,唐宏..新疆棉花种植面积的时空变化及适度规模研究[J].中国生态农业学报,2011,19(2):415-420,6.基金项目
中国科学院西部行动计划项目(KZCX2-XB3-01)和国家自然科学基金项目(40971108)资助 （KZCX2-XB3-01）
