中国人兽共患病学报2011，Vol.27Issue(6)：519-521,3.
应用回归法预测石家庄市斑疹伤寒发病
Predicting the incidence of typhus by regression analysis in Shijiazhuang City
张世勇 1高秋菊2
作者信息
- 1. 石家庄市疾病预防控制中心流行病防治所,石家庄,050011
- 2. 中国人民解放军白求恩军医学院预防医学教研室,石家庄050081
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The aim of the present study was to predict the epidemic trends of typhus in Shijiazhuang, and provide scientific basis for making the further prevention and control measures of typhus. Using the Excel software, the secondary polynomial fitting was completed according to the incidence of typhus from 2001 to 2009, and extrapolation prediction was conducted based on the established equations of the incidence of typhus in 2010, and then the changing trends were analyzed. The established predictive model of the incidence of typhus was "y=0.428 x2-5. 9723x+21. 524", the correlation index R2 was 0. 9576.The model fit well. There had a declining trend of the incidence of typhus in Shijiazhuang City in recent years. But since 2008,the incidence has become higher. The predictive incidence of typhus in 2010 of Shijiazhuang was 4. 601 per hundred thousands.关键词
斑疹伤寒/Excel软件/发病率/预测Key words
typhus/ Excel software/ incidence/ prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张世勇,高秋菊..应用回归法预测石家庄市斑疹伤寒发病[J].中国人兽共患病学报,2011,27(6):519-521,3.
