安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(14)：8754-8756,3.
基于ARIMA模型的我国农村居民消费水平预测分析
Forecast and Analysis of Rural Households Consumption Level in China Based on the ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
By using the software SAS9.2 and the relevant data of consumption level of rural residents in China from 1952 to 2008, the ARIMA model is established. The model is used to analyze and forecast the time series of the consumption level of Chinese rural residents. The results show that in the near future period of time, the consumption level of Chinese rural residents will be further increased. In 2012, the level will break through per capital 5 000 yuan, almost 100 times more than that in the primary time period. But consumption level does not equal to living standard. To let farmers lead a good life, the government shouldfollow the objective laws, take the overall situation into consideration; coordinate the relations among farmers' consumption level, national subsidies and farmers' production enthusiasm. Therefore, It suggested that the historical and objective factors should be attached more importance to, raising farmers' income and allaying farmers' fear as well as exploring the consumption potential of rural market were effective measures in developing the consumptive potential of rural market and promoting the economic sustainable development.关键词
ARIMA模型/农村居民消费/经济增长Key words
ARIMA Model/ Rural households consumption/ Economic growth分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
严健标,李强..基于ARIMA模型的我国农村居民消费水平预测分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(14):8754-8756,3.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(70803005) （70803005）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(RW2010-6). （RW2010-6）
