中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(5)：106-112,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.05.018
中国CO《,2》排放的影响因素分解与预测
Accounting for Carbon Dioxide Emission in China and Forecasting Its Future Trend
摘要
Abstract
To eliminate the negative impact of 2008 U. S financial crisis, China has been dedicated to stimulating its economy by means of a series of policies. During such a period, it is a very arduous task to realize the reduction target of CO2 emission intensity.This paper adopts a structural decomposition analysis of the historical change in energy-related CO2 emission in China during the period 1997 -2004, the period when China experienced the Asian financial crisis. The results show that: ① economic growth is the main positive driving force of CO2 emission changes; ② energy conservation is the dominant contributor to the decline in CO2 emission; ③the effect of economic structure contributes little to the changes in CO2 emission. Specifically, domestic final demand and export,combined with the structural shift of export, push up CO2 emission. Structural changes of domestic final demand and fuel shift both exhibit little positive effect on CO2 emission. Furthermore, with the premise that economic growth will follow its strategy planning, this paper designs three scenarios of energy conservation to forecast the future CO2 emission trend. We conclude that, to harmonize the economic growth and CO2 emission reduction, it is important to further enforce policies on the structural change of final demand and enhance energy efficiency and renewable energy substitution.关键词
CO《,2》排放/态势预测/能源环境/投入产出结构分解分析Key words
carbon dioxide (CO2) emission/ trend forecast/ energy-environment/ input-output structural decomposition analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
薛勇,郭菊娥,孟磊..中国CO《,2》排放的影响因素分解与预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(5):106-112,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"基于投入占用产出技术的西部节能降耗实现途径研究"(编号:773091)资助. （编号:773091）
