农业工程学报2011，Vol.27Issue(4)：41-47,封2,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2011.04.008
宁夏南部山区农业干旱预警模型
Agricultural drought early warning models in Southern Ningxia
摘要
Abstract
In order to establish grid scale model of agricultural drought early warning, according to the theory of natural disaster system, integrating features of dry pregnant disaster environment, hazards factors and disaster bodies, selecting the DEM, slope, aspect, soil type, history of drought risk index, agricultural inputs as influence factors of the geo-hazards stability, selecting the pre-drought, crop water satisfaction rate as hazard risk factors, selecting crop type,crop development of water sensitive coefficient, irrigation, crop yields as vulnerability factors in the drought system, the agricultural drought early warning model for Ningxia region was established by the AHP method with quantization influence coefficient based on GIS and spatial interpolation. Test results showed that compared with the measured values,more than 90％ of model output levels of drought were consistent. The early warning model could accurately predict future trends and distribution of droughts. Compared with current climatic drought index prediction model, the spatial resolution of agricultural drought early warning model was significantly improved, and could better reflect the occurrence of agricultural drought and its development process. It can be used for regional drought early warning and drought trend forecast.关键词
农业干旱/预警/灾害系统/模型/作物分布/宁夏南部山区Key words
agricultural drought/ early warning/ disasters/ model/ crop distribution/ Southern Ningxia分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
张晓煜,杨晓光,韩颖娟,卫建国,曹宁..宁夏南部山区农业干旱预警模型[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(4):41-47,封2,8.基金项目
科技部社会公益研究专项资助(2005DIB3J103) （2005DIB3J103）
