西南交通大学学报2011，Vol.46Issue(2)：340-346,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0258-2724.2011.02.027
空域扇区概率交通需求预测模型
Airspace Sector Probabilistic Traffic Demand Prediction Model
摘要
Abstract
In order to predict the traffic demands and variations for a future time interval in an airspace sector, the influence of the aircraft flight time on the probabilistic traffic demand prediction was analyzed from the point of uncertainty with a simplified airspace structure. The probabilistic distribution functions for the sector entry time, sector exit time and sector transit time were established by analysis of the randomicity of the sector entry, exit and transit process. On this basis, an airspace sector probabilistic traffic demand prediction model was developed, and a heuristic algorithm was designed. A simulation was performed to verify the proposed model and algorithm using real flight data. The result shows that the sector congestion predicted by the model and algorithm occurs during 10 :00 - 11 :00. Compared with the traditional deterministic methods, the proposed method can reduce 30 min of congestion period avoid unnecessary flow management during the period 9 :30 - 10 :00 , and thus alleviate the air traffic controllers' workload.关键词
空中交通管理/扇区流量预测/交通需求预测/概率分布函数/不确定性Key words
air traffic management/ sector flow forecasting/ traffic demand prediction/ probabilistic distribution function/ uncertainty分类
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田文,胡明华..空域扇区概率交通需求预测模型[J].西南交通大学学报,2011,46(2):340-346,7.基金项目
国家863计划资助项目(2006AA12A105) （2006AA12A105）
