长江科学院院报2011，Vol.28Issue(5)：14-17,4.
南门湾滑移式危岩体风险评价研究
Risk Assessment for Nanmenwan Sliding Dangerous Rock Masses
摘要
Abstract
Located in Wuxi county, Nanmenwan dangerous rock zone has encountered failure for many times which caused deaths of more than 100 people and restricted local social and economic development. On the basis of previous researches, four sliding dangerous rock masses from the zone were chosen as research objects, and their failure probability in normal and rainstorm conditions were calculated by Monte Carlo simulation. The element at risk of the rock masses as well as their vulnerability were also analyzed based on the actual situation. Finally, according to the computation of the above data, the authors concluded that under normal condition, the casualty risk was 0.30 person, and the economic loss risk was 151,600 yuan; while under rainstorm condition, the casualty risk was 0.65 person, and the economic loss risk was 319,100 yuan. Risk assessment results can be used as reference for disaster prevention and reduction.关键词
危岩体/破坏概率/威胁对象/易损性/风险评价Key words
sliding dangerous rock/ failure probability/ element at risk/ vulnerability/ risk assessment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李漪,晏鄂川,胡显明,杨建国..南门湾滑移式危岩体风险评价研究[J].长江科学院院报,2011,28(5):14-17,4.基金项目
教育部新世纪"优秀人才支持计划"资助项目(NCET-07-0775) （NCET-07-0775）
