中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(1)：57-63,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.01.011
基于弹性脱钩的中国减排目标缺口分析
Gap of Emission Reduction Targets :Analysis Based on Elastic Decoupling of China
摘要
Abstract
This paper analyzes the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development at different stages of the National Five Year Plans from 1978 to 2008 though adopting to elastic decoupling methods and Tapio evaluation criteria. The analysis shows that the influencing factors to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development in China are different, and economic development and carbon emissions has a weak decoupling relationship since the recent thirties years of reform and development in China. It is difficult to achieve the goal that we will reduce carbon emission by 40％ -50％ in 2020 based on the data from historical experience and the different expectations on economic development from economists. Though constructing the calculation model of carbon emissions intensity gap according to different development scenarios, it shows that economic growth, infrastructure investment and further development of industrialization are the main drivers to increase carbon emissions, while technological progress especially the reduction of carbon emissions is the primary means to reduce carbon emissions in China. It is imperative to convert economic growth mode and we still have a long way to go to maintain economic growth and reduce carbon intensity.关键词
低碳经济/减排承诺/目标缺口/弹性脱钩Key words
low carbon economy/ mitigation promise/ objective gap/ elastic decoupling分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李忠民,陈向涛,姚宇..基于弹性脱钩的中国减排目标缺口分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(1):57-63,7.基金项目
国家社科基金项目"2020年前我国经济发展与实现减排目标的关系研究(No.10BJY012)"项目 （No.10BJY012）
陕西师范大学"211工程"三期重点学科建设项目"中国特色发展经济学". （）
