运筹与管理2011，Vol.20Issue(2)：82-88,7.
群体性突发事件发生机理的多阶段动态博弈模型分析
Multi-phase Dynamic Game Analysis of the Root of Unexpected Incidents Involving Mass Participation
摘要
Abstract
Unexpected incidents involving mass participation become an important factor influencing Chinese softcial stability and modernization.Suppose that the vulnerable group considers the equity factor in its utility function as the private information, the economic income of social group changes in different phases, the partition of social strata is decided by the relative economic status, and the social group with bounded rationality takes the forward induction to engender the adaptability expectation.The paper builds the multi - phase dynamic game model, and then gets the conditions for the vulnerable social group to take the unconditional struggle strategy, actively concession strategy and actively struggle strategy, and two engendering mechanisms of unexpected incidents involving mass participation.The conclusion shows that the economic income increasing rate is an important factor of unexpected incidents involving mass participation, besides the sensitive degree of the vulnerable social group for pay disparity and the different expected incomes of social groups that take the different strategies in the current system.关键词
系统科学/应急管理/多阶段动态博弈/群体性突发事件/发生机理Key words
system science/ emergency management/ multi-phase dynamic game/ unexpected incidents involving mass participation/ engendering mechanism分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘德海..群体性突发事件发生机理的多阶段动态博弈模型分析[J].运筹与管理,2011,20(2):82-88,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目(70901016) （70901016）
2009年广东省人文社会科重重点研究基地重大项目(09JDXM63012) （09JDXM63012）
辽宁省教育厅2010年高等学校科研文科基地项目(WJ2010023) （WJ2010023）
2010年度全国教育规划专项研究课题(CLA102084) （CLA102084）
