安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(14)：8710-8712,8715,4.
我国城镇化水平和经济发展关系的协整分析
Cointegration Analysis on the Relation between Urbanization and Economic Growth in China
刘爱英 1姚丽芬 2李庆辰3
作者信息
- 1. 河北经贸大学工商管理学院,河北石家庄,050061
- 2. 河北经贸大学旅游学院,河北石家庄,050061
- 3. 河北省科学院地理科学研究所,河北石家庄,050021
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper utilizes cointegration theory,error correcting model and Granger causality testing theory to make an empirical research on the relation between urbanization and GDP in China, and also implements a comparative analysis to the relation between three industries and degree of urbanization, the related coeffecient is 0. 97,0. 95,0. 97,0. 97. And the result shows a long-term balance between these two factors,and the promoting effect to tertiary industry by urbanization is more obvious. Urbanization and economic growth are the long - term balanced relations. In the long- term balance,every 1％ increment of urbanization can make 4.82％ increment of GDP; In short-term balance, if the balance depart from the long- term balance at the i-th term, the model will take automatic reversal adjustment with -0.06 adjusting strength at the (i + 1 )th term, to make it move to the long-term balance. The economic growth onto urbanization is one-way causality relationship, the primary and secondary industry onto urbanization is also one-way causality relationship. However,the tertiary industry onto urbanization is both-way causality relationship.关键词
经济增长/城镇化/协整检验/误差修正模型/Granger因果关系Key words
Economic growth/ Urbanization/ Cointegration test/ Error correction model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘爱英,姚丽芬,李庆辰..我国城镇化水平和经济发展关系的协整分析[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(14):8710-8712,8715,4.
