交通信息与安全2011，Vol.29Issue(2)：5-9,5.DOI:10.3963/j.ISSN 1674-4861.2011.02.002
基于ARMA模型的公交枢纽站客流量预测方法研究
Method of Hub Station Passenger Flow Forecasting Based on ARMA Model
摘要
Abstract
After the necessity of estimating passenger flow was analyzed, a short-term forecasting method based on time series was proposed.For the characteristics of urban short-term traffic, a passenger flow forecast model at public stations based on ARMA was designed.Research on the traditional behaviors of passenger flow in a single line was conducted and a real-time prediction model in the transportation hub station in key areas was established.According to the feasibility of the model using the passenger flow data of Wujiaochang in Shanghai, an optimization system for public traffic dispatching in the hub was proposed.关键词
公共交通/短期客流预测/ARMA模型/枢纽站/时间序列Key words
public transport/ short-term passenger flow forecasting/ ARMA model/ hub station/ time series分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
顾杨,韩印,方雪丽..基于ARMA模型的公交枢纽站客流量预测方法研究[J].交通信息与安全,2011,29(2):5-9,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:51008196)、上海市科委科技攻关项目(批准号:10dz21510700)、上海市重点学科项目(批准号:S0504)资助 （批准号:51008196）
