安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(10)：6227-6229,3.
松原市粮食产量预报方法初探
A Preliminary Study on Forecasting Method of Grain Yield in Songyunn City
李建平 1刘兵 1刘爽 1杜海信 1王猛 1黄式琳 1高凤岐 1赵秀英1
作者信息
- 1. 吉林省松原市气象局,吉林松原,138005
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
As indicated by the analysis results on the grain yield data of Songyuan City ,maize and rice yield accounted respectively for 74. 13％and 12.43％ of total grain yield,while other orops accounted for 13.44％. Meteorological yield series was obtained by equal weight moving average ,which reflected the good and bad harvest years influenced by meteorological conditions. The mean absolute error and the relative error between the actual yield and predicted yield by prediction equation of maize yield comprising 18 meteorological factors were only 8％ and less than 1％ respectively. In addition,the multiple correlation coefficient of all other prediction equations constructed independently all passed the reliability test at 0.001 level.关键词
粮食产量现状/粮食产量预报/逐步回归数学方法Key words
Food production status/ Food production forecasting/ Stepwise regression mathematical method分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李建平,刘兵,刘爽,杜海信,王猛,黄式琳,高凤岐,赵秀英..松原市粮食产量预报方法初探[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(10):6227-6229,3.
