农业现代化研究2011，Vol.32Issue(2)：213-216,4.
河南省气候生产力时空分布及粮食产量预测
Temporal and Spatial Distribution of Climate Productivity and Prediction of Grain Output in Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
According to the meteorological data in the past 59 years, the paper calculated the climate productivity in Henan with Thornthwaite Memoriai model and analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of climate productivity by linear regression, M-K mutation testing and Kriging interpolation method. Finally, using the method of gray forecasting predicts the grain potential productivity in the 12 years of Henan Province. The results show that: the climate productivity was rising gradually in the past 59 years of Henan Province, and the jumping point of the climate productivity is in the year of 1955. The spatial distribution of climate productivity in Henan Province decreases gradually from southeast to northwest. And at the same time the climate productivity of the south of Henan grows fastest and keeps the most stable.Climate warming is beneficial for agricultural production of Henan. There will be a production potential between 40％ and 45％ in single grain yield of Henan. The grain output of Henan has a growing trend in the next 12 years and will be up to 8740.8082 × 104 t totally in 2020.关键词
气候生产力/粮食产量/河南省Key words
climate productivity/ grain output/ Henan Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王晓喆,延军平,张立伟..河南省气候生产力时空分布及粮食产量预测[J].农业现代化研究,2011,32(2):213-216,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"秦岭南北全球变化适应度评价及可持续发展模式选择"(编号:40871052). （编号:40871052）
