气候变化研究进展2011，Vol.7Issue(2)：136-142,7.
太阳能光伏发电量预报方法的发展
Review on Forecast Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation
摘要
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic technology is becoming one of the hot issues in the field of renewable energy generation.In future, China's large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation system will be continuously in rapid development. But, so far, the exploring of photovoltaic power generation forecasting is still weak, and there are few methods available to meet the practical needs ofphotovoltaic power generation prediction in China. Photovoltaic power generation prediction means to accurately predict solar irradiances at first, and then in combination with the analysis of the historic power generation data of photovoltaic power station, to further forecast photovoltaic power.In this paper, we briefly introduce and classify several types ofphotovoltaic power generation forecasting models,such as the simulation-prediction method based on global solar radiation prediction and photovoltaic simulator, the physical prediction method based on global solar radiation prediction and photoelectric conversion efficiency model,the statistic-dynamic method based on the meteorological data and photoelectric power generation data processing and numerical weather prediction. Meanwhile, we also simply introduce photovoltaic power generation forecasting platform's construction abroad.关键词
光伏发电/效率模型/气象要素/太阳总辐射/预报/动力-统计方法Key words
photovoltaic power generation system/ efficiency model/ meteorological factors/ total solar radiation/forecasting/ statistic-dynamic method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李芬,陈正洪,成驰,段善旭..太阳能光伏发电量预报方法的发展[J].气候变化研究进展,2011,7(2):136-142,7.基金项目
科技部2010年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006036) （气象）
华中区域气象中心科技发展基金重点项目(QY-Z-201010) （QY-Z-201010）
中国气象局2010、2011年度工作任务(气预函[2010]76号,[2010]174号) （气预函[2010]76号,[2010]174号）
