农业现代化研究2011，Vol.32Issue(2)：165-169,5.
湖南省农业洪旱灾害演变趋势和成因及防灾减灾措施
Succession Trend, Reason Analysis, Prevention and Reduction Measures of Agriculture Flood and Drought Disasters in Hunan Province
摘要
Abstract
The succession trend and reason analysis of the affected agricultural area by flood and drought disasters in the Hunan Province were studied in this paper mainly using the methods of Mann - Kendall trend test (M-K method) and regression analysis.The results showed that: (1) M-K statistical value of agricultural area affected by flood has been breaking M - K confidence interval after 1983 (P＜ 0.05), and which showed a general upward trend with power function; the drought affected agricultural area displayed a fluctuating trend, and which showed an insignificant upward trend (P ＞ 0.05).These results suggested that the area affected by flood continued to grow,while the drought affected area had not been inhibited effectively.The main reasons are: (1) the time and space heterogeneity of precipitation.For example, compared with the average precipitation during 1951-1980, the precipitation in the April, May and June after 1986 decreased significantly, however, which displayed a pronounced increasing in the July.(2) The water conservation function of forests decreased significantly caused by the serious soil erosion.(3) The flooding release function of rivers and lakes was significantly decreased by the serious sedimentation.(4)The large number of reservoirs did not effectively display their integrative role in controlling flood and drought.Finally,some strategies were proposed for the reduction of the affected area of flood and drought disasters.关键词
洪灾/旱灾/洞庭湖流域/大型水库/水分涵养/水资源Key words
flood disaster/ drought disaster/ drainage area of Dongting Lake/ large reservoir/ water conservation/ water resource分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
覃红燕,谢永宏,邹冬生..湖南省农业洪旱灾害演变趋势和成因及防灾减灾措施[J].农业现代化研究,2011,32(2):165-169,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:31070325) （编号:31070325）
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向性项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-435) （编号:KZCX2-YW-435）
国家重大基础研究计划(编号:2009CB 421103). （编号:2009CB 421103）
