中国电机工程学报2011，Vol.31Issue(16)：48-54,7.
计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系
Operation Risk Assessment Theory and Index System of Transmission Line Taking the Probability of Pollution Flashover Into Account
摘要
Abstract
Focusing on the fact that high voltage technologies are developed independently from the research on reliability of transmission lines, an operation risk assessment theory and an index system for transmission line operation considering pollution flashover were established. First, based on a pollution flashover probability model for insulators under certain operation voltage and conditional probability, the fault probability of transmission lines was obtained. Second, the pollution flashover severity was defined as the weighted sum of the severities of voltage limit violation, frequency limit violation and overload; and all risk indexes of transmission lines were simulated and calculated. Finally, all the indexes were sorted; and through fuzzy C-means (FCM) the lines were classified into three types, and each one respectively corresponded to an assistant decision-making I.e. Adjustment of creepage distance/clean/paint regardless of cost, pertinent adjustment of creepage distance/clean/paint and delayed adjustment of creepage distance/clean/paint. Calculation and simulation results of the WSCC-9 test system verified the correctness and efficiency of the theory.关键词
输电线路/污闪概率/污闪严重度/风险评估/风险指标/辅助决策分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
帅海燕,龚庆武,陈道君..计及污闪概率的输电线路运行风险评估理论与指标体系[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(16):48-54,7.基金项目
科技部科学技术重点项目(NCSIE-2006-JKZX-174)中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20082070101000035). （NCSIE-2006-JKZX-174）
