中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(4)：10-18,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.04.002
中国区域低碳发展的情景分析——以江苏省为例
Scenario Analysis of China' s Low-Carbon Development at Local Level——The Case of Jiangsu Province
刘慧 1张永亮 1毕军1
作者信息
- 1. 南京大学环境学院污染控制与资源化研究国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210093
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
This paper intends to study the low-carbon economic development (target year 2020) at a local level based on Jiangsu Province. By setting the benchmark scenario (BAU), low-carbon economic policy scenarios (LES), and further international cooperation to promote low carbon development and technology transfer scenarios (ICS) in Jiangsu province, these three policy scenarios analyze the future of long-term energy demand and carbon dioxide emission intensity, and put forward the developmental path and policy suggestions for the local level to achieve carbon dioxide emission reduction targets in 2020. The results show that there will likely be a decrease of 40％ -45％ of carbon dioxide emission intensity by 2020 compared to 2005 at the local and regional levels;through the development of low-carbon economy and adoption of relevant measures, by 2020, there will be a reduction of 28％ in the energy demand of Jiangsu Province compared to the baseline scenario, and carbon dioxide emissions intensity will reduce 50％ compared to 2007; through active participation in international cooperation and international technology transfer, carbon dioxide emissions will likely decrease 52％ based on 2007.关键词
低碳发展/基准情景/低碳经济政策情景Key words
low-carbon economic/ benchmark scenario/ low-carbon economic policy scenarios分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘慧,张永亮,毕军..中国区域低碳发展的情景分析——以江苏省为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):10-18,9.
