中国人口·资源与环境2011，Vol.21Issue(4)：81-87,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2011.04.013
中国能源经济效率动态分析及预测
Dynamic Analysis and Forecast of Energy Economic Efficiency of China
摘要
Abstract
The factors affecting energy economic efficiency and their relations are dynamic and complex. Based on the data from 1978 to 2007 of China, the energy economic efficiency was empirically analyzed and forecasted using Vector Auto-regression model ( VAR),impulse response, and cointegration theory. The results show that there exists a cointegration relationship among energy economic efficiency, the tertiary industry proportion and the energy price index. In the long run, when the proportion of tertiary industry or energy price rises or falls by 1％, energy economic efficiency changes by 0.478 5％ or 0. 347 7％ respectively, in the same direction.There exist positive impulse responses among variables in addition to the short-time response of tertiary industry to energy price, and they reach the maximum at the 6 to 10 lag period, and then stabilize gradually. The dynamic prediction results based on VAR model indicate that the trend of China' s energy economic efficiency in the next 10 years is not optimistic, because the changes of energy economic efficiency, energy price and industrial structure in recent years have caused negative impact on the improvement of energy economic efficiency. Because of the long response lag period, timely adjustment of energy economic strategies should be made.关键词
VAR模型/脉冲响应分析/协整/能源经济效率Key words
VAR model/ impulse response analysis/ cointegration/ energy economic efficiency分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曹明..中国能源经济效率动态分析及预测[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(4):81-87,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:90610032)资助. （编号:90610032）
