安徽农业科学2011，Vol.39Issue(11)：6608-6610,6613,4.
气候变化对青海海东农业区的影响评估与适应对策
Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Haidong Agricultural Region in Qinghai and its Adaptive Countermeasures
摘要
Abstract
[ Objective] Climate change and its effect on agriculture in Haidong agricultural region were studied. [Method ] Based on meteorology and agricultural observation data in Haidong agricultural region from 1961 to 2009, the characteristics of climate change and its effect on agriculture were analyzed, and the possible effect of future climate change on Haidong agriculture was predicted according to the future climate scenarios provided by down-scaling climate model. [ Result] Annual mean temperature in Haidong agricultural region during 1961 -2009showed obvious increase trend, with the rising rate of 0.37 ℃/10 a; annual mean precipitation and annual total sunshine duration went down slightly, with the climatic tendency of -3.70 am/10 a and -27.55 h/10 a, respectively; climate extreme event occurred less frequently but became severer in recent 49 years. In future 100 years, temperature in Haidong agricultural region would go up significantly, with the slight increase of rainfall, and climate change would affect agricultural production environment, arrangement, structure and productivity, namely increasing yield fluctuation of agricultural production, cost and investment and changing arrangement and structure. In order to adapt climate change, it was necessary to adjust agricultural structure, strengthen management, improve agricultural infrastructure, adopt new technology,increase the resistance ability of agricultural production to climate change actively and designedly, so as to improve adaptability, furthest reduce loss and realize potential benefit. [ Conclusion] Our study could provide references for the decision of government and agricultural sector.关键词
气候变化/农业区/影响评估/对策/青海海东Key words
Climate change/ Agricultural region/ Assessment/ Countermeasure/ Haidong in Qinghai Provnce分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘彩红,祁贵明,戴升..气候变化对青海海东农业区的影响评估与适应对策[J].安徽农业科学,2011,39(11):6608-6610,6613,4.基金项目
中国气象局2010年气候变化专项"西北地区气候变化评估报告". （）
