排灌机械工程学报2011，Vol.29Issue(3)：224-229,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.2011.03.009
证据理论在泵站老化评价中的应用
Application of evidence theory for aging degree evaluation in pumping station
摘要
Abstract
To increase the credibility of determining the aging degree grade of pumping station, a new pumping station aging degree evaluation model based on evidence theory was built. Taking two typical pumping stations as examples, from which aging information was extracted for each index. According to pumping station aging evaluation standard, three experts were asked to give score separately on each aging degree grade for basic indices of the index system and each score as one piece of evidence after being normalized. According to the Dempster combination rule,pieces of evidence were composited to get credibility allocation of each basic index on framework of recognition as one piece of evidence.Pieces of evidence were composited in accordance with this rule and evidence synthesis formula with weighting factor, credibility allocation on framework of recognition of integrated management, electrical and mechanical equipment, buildings, metal structures and the whole pumping station figured out. Then ultimate score of pumping station aging degree was calculated according to a given formula, and aging degree grade of pumping station was found out in contrast with a given table. Compared with results from model of fuzzy-AHP comprehensive evaluation model,to some index on frame of discernment, the maximum credibility is 2.4 times as much as the maximum fuzzy membership, and both of them correspond to the same aging degree grade, except evidence conflict situation which is difficult to resolve. It showed that application of evidence theory can increase determination of pumping station aging degree grade. Each piece of evidence is necessary to be normalized before evidence combination, which can well solve situation in which the composited credibility is likely to be greater than 1.关键词
证据理论/泵站/老化评价/可信度/模糊隶属度Key words
evidence theory/ pumping station/ aging degree evaluation/ credibility/ fuzzy membership分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈坚,徐艳茹,于永海,王建明,张后文..证据理论在泵站老化评价中的应用[J].排灌机械工程学报,2011,29(3):224-229,6.基金项目
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划重点项目(2006BAD11B07) （2006BAD11B07）
