现代电力2011，Vol.28Issue(2)：43-48,6.
基于多元线性回归模型的并网光伏发电系统发电量预测研究
Study on the Generator Forecasting of Grid-connected PV Power System Based on Multivariate Linear Regression Model
李光明 1刘祖明 1何京鸿 1赵恒利 1张树明1
作者信息
- 1. 云南师范大学太阳能研究所/教育部可再生能源材料先进技术与制备重点实验室,云南昆明650092
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摘要
Abstract
To accurately forecast the generator of grid-connected PV power system and to improve its security and stability, the output power of a single component of silicon solar cell is calculated in this paper.In addition, a multivariate linear regression forecasting model is proposed with variables of radiation and temperature.A test scheme was designed firstly, then operation data obtained from the PV system in sunny day, cloudy day and the day from fine to cloudy or the day from overcast to cloudy is collected.Finally,the regression equations for three kinds of weather are solved based on forecasting model that is applied in 2kW grid-connected PV system.The forecasting results show that the forecasting method is not only simple and has high accuracy, but also suitable to solve stochastic problems to improve the operation stability of PV system.关键词
光伏系统/随机性/线性回归/预测模型/精确性Key words
PV system/ stochastic/ linear regression/ forecast model/ accuracy分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李光明,刘祖明,何京鸿,赵恒利,张树明..基于多元线性回归模型的并网光伏发电系统发电量预测研究[J].现代电力,2011,28(2):43-48,6.
