水科学进展2011，Vol.22Issue(3)：323-330,8.DOI:CNKI:32-1309/P.20110514.1445.005
长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析
Flood coincidence probability analysis for the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries
摘要
Abstract
Flood coincidence probability analysis among different regions is quite important for flood design and control. The current flood coincidence probability analysis is based on the simple statistical analysis of observed data without theoretic methods. In this study, the daily flow data of four hydrological stations in the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries, including the Pingshan at the Jinsha River, Gaochang at the Min River, Beibei at the Jialing River and Yichang at the Yangtze River, are selected for case study. Multidimensional copula functions are introduced and used to construct the joint distributions of flood occurrence dates and magnitudes. Flood coincidence and conditional probabilities among the upstream Yangtze River and its tributaries thus are estimated. The calculated flood encounter values are compared to the empirical ones estimated by the observed data. The results show that the proposed method is rational and provides a new approach for flood encounter analysis.关键词
长江上游/洪水遭遇/copula函数/联合分布/条件概率Key words
the upstream Yangtze River/ flood coincidence probability/ copula function/ joint distribution/ conditional probability分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈璐,郭生练,张洪刚,闫宝伟,刘心愿..长江上游干支流洪水遭遇分析[J].水科学进展,2011,22(3):323-330,8.基金项目
"十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2009BAC56B04) （2009BAC56B04）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51079100) （51079100）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(200901001) （200901001）
