水力发电学报2011，Vol.30Issue(3)：34-38,5.
基于贝叶斯定理的汛限水位动态控制风险分析
Risk analysis on the dynamic control of limit water level based on Bayes theorem
摘要
Abstract
Based on the rainfall forecasting information and the data of rainfall observation during 1342 days in the flood seasons of 11 years at a pilot reservoir of the key program of the ministry of water resources, risk analysis concepts and assumptions adopted in the dynamic control method of limit water level are verified by Bayes theorem. It is also shown that the representation of risk by posterior probability and the related inference model used to formulate the dynamic control method are reasonable and safe. These results would provide references for promoting the use of the dynamic control method, with which the utilization rate of flood resources under flood control safety can be increased.关键词
防洪工程/汛限水位动态控制/贝叶斯定理/风险分析Key words
flood control works/ dynamic control of limit water level/ Bayes theorem/ risk analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王本德,郭晓亮,周惠成,王国利,刁艳芳..基于贝叶斯定理的汛限水位动态控制风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(3):34-38,5.基金项目
水利部公益性行业科研专项(200701015) （200701015）
国家"十一五"科技支持计划课题(2006BAB14B05) （2006BAB14B05）
