中国水稻科学2011，Vol.25Issue(3)：307-313,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-7216.2011.03.012
早稻产量动态集成预报方法研究
Study on Dynamic Integrated Prediction of Early Rice Yield
摘要
Abstract
The theories of historical meteorological influence index for bumper or poor harvest of crop yield, crop climatic suitability index and crop growth simulation model were respectively applied to establish the methods for dynamic prediction of early rice yield. These three methods were used to predict early rice yield in Hunan, China from 1996 to 2005. Based on the analysis of prediction errors, a dynamic integrated prediction method was developed by using the weights of each method. The results of fit test showed that the prediction accuracy of integrated method for the bumper or poor harvest trend and the actual yield was more stable and higher than any single prediction method. Tests for yield of early rice in Hunan, China from 2006 to 2008 indicated that the prediction accuracy of the dynamic integrated prediction method was higher than any single prediction method except for the bumper or poor harvest trend in 2006 because of a typhoon hazard encountered at the harvest stage, and it can satisfy the needs of operational services.关键词
气象影响指数/气候适宜指数/ORYZA2000模型/早稻/产量/动态预报/丰歉趋势Key words
meteorological influence index/ climatic suitability index/ ORYZA2000 model/ early rice/ yield/ dynamic prediction/ bumper or poor harvest trend分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
易雪,王建林,宋迎波,帅细强..早稻产量动态集成预报方法研究[J].中国水稻科学,2011,25(3):307-313,7.基金项目
中国气象局基础建设项目 （）
