西北林学院学报2011，Vol.26Issue(4)：162-166,5.
短叶松同龄纯林林分平均直径的时序分析
Time Series Analysis of Mean Jack Pine Even-aged Pure Stand Diameter
摘要
Abstract
According to Box-Jenkins principle and ARIMA model, the time series of the average diameter of Jack pine even-aged pure stand was fitted and predicted.A model was constructed and predicted for the data of sample plot 1,2,3 by Eviews software to select out the form of the optimal model.The data from plot 4 were used for model feasibility verifying.After fitting and prediction for four sample plots, the results showed that the AR(3) model rejecting AR(2) term better fit the series of the average diameter, R12 = 0.907 5 R22 =0.909 7 R32 =0.910 3 R42 =0.949 8, and bias was very small(＜1％).ARIMA model was suitable for short-term prediction of the series of diameter.关键词
短叶松/平均直径/时间序列/ARIMA模型Key words
Jack pine/ average diameter/ time series/ ARIMA model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
范小莉,杨华,亢新刚,高延,冯启祥..短叶松同龄纯林林分平均直径的时序分析[J].西北林学院学报,2011,26(4):162-166,5.基金项目
林业公益性行业专项课题(200804027) （200804027）
